Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 24.297083 26.753206 29.524864 32.923478 37.034956 41.925528 48.307463
2025-02-09 20.960180 24.167429 28.098095 33.413702 40.666546 50.656662 66.408553
2025-02-16 18.625595 22.184684 26.816479 33.575768 43.783810 59.914322 91.135071
2025-02-23 16.767179 20.437286 25.426738 33.144585 45.809086 68.448638 122.747272
2025-03-02 15.494984 19.253717 24.556909 33.194212 48.515265 79.596463 176.347046
2025-03-09 14.406191 18.168391 23.632997 32.913027 50.504808 90.647549 258.672012
2025-03-16 13.496710 17.228323 22.779984 32.548155 52.189245 102.380617 403.808005
2025-03-23 12.738502 16.428847 22.033681 32.209072 53.807562 115.583879 720.044543
2025-03-30 12.117304 15.774338 21.434597 32.016200 55.690852 131.950924 1830.662575
2025-04-06 11.475759 15.035998 20.619550 31.277195 56.060212 143.756089 8274.431573
2025-04-13 11.292482 14.985588 20.931565 32.772471 62.661501 194.908684 NaN
2025-04-20 10.837172 14.471551 20.399561 32.461167 64.260557 225.247120 NaN
2025-04-27 10.477349 14.092735 20.079901 32.576551 67.329931 279.122020 NaN
2025-05-04 10.176716 13.789729 19.866886 32.894411 71.292023 367.207363 NaN
2025-05-11 9.870305 13.457360 19.570583 32.978956 74.602046 486.279205 NaN
2025-05-18 9.521914 13.035299 19.075304 32.528532 75.819326 600.898769 NaN
2025-05-25 9.260303 12.743593 18.799504 32.562303 79.046460 866.105637 NaN
2025-06-01 8.982178 12.409225 18.417830 32.283722 80.929015 1230.330602 NaN
2025-06-08 8.715454 12.081254 18.025620 31.927686 82.386501 1837.354314 NaN
2025-06-15 8.469927 11.778249 17.661624 31.598139 83.897219 3157.641279 NaN
2025-06-22 8.255570 11.519248 17.366479 31.410824 86.105722 8673.520957 NaN
2025-06-29 8.000044 11.178735 16.891635 30.694733 85.323530 19272.750326 NaN
2025-07-06 7.974367 11.235821 17.205723 32.142678 97.423576 NaN NaN